Alan Morton-Smith
Mindreign.com
07/10/2009
On September 17, the United States announced that it was abandoning its plans for anti-missile installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. These were to be used as a defence against long-range Iranian missiles, which the country is currently testing. However, the review President Obama ordered into the missile defence programme yielded updated intelligence and suggests that Iran is progressing more slowly than previously thought. The most likely scenario is that it won’t be able to reliably manufacture them for at least a decade. Consequently the US will focus on the threat posed by Iran’s short-range missiles, and counteract this with suitably equipped US Navy vessels, based in the North Sea and the Mediterranean. This comprehensive break with Bush-era foreign policy has been introduced for a variety of reasons, and will have a great many repercussions for America’s friends and foes alike. As might be expected, given that they were to be on the front line of these defences, the effects will be most keenly felt in Central Europe, and the resulting change in relations with both the European Union and Russia could be profound.
Spheres of influence
It was Russia who most bitterly opposed the scheme, arguing that it targeted its nuclear arsenal, rather than a potential ballistic missile attack from Iran. Hours after the conclusion of the US election last year that saw Obama elected, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned that he would deploy short-range missiles near Poland capable of striking NATO countries. In addition, there was a threat to deploy short-range nuclear weapons in the exclave of Kaliningrad, which sits inside the European Union. This sabre-rattling was intended to focus the newly elected American president’s mind, and was in stark contrast to the otherwise very positive global reaction to his election. Yet during the election campaign Obama had been lukewarm about the missile shield, and certainly less ideological in his approach to Russia than his rival, the Republican Senator John McCain. These public threats by the Kremlin could have made it more difficult for him to abandon the project, particularly in the context of heightened East-West tensions resulting from the war in Georgia, which had started just a few weeks before.
This didn’t come to pass, not least for pragmatic economic reasons — the programme would have cost $4 billion a year (£2.8 billion). The principal reason however was to “reset or reboot” America’s relationship with Russia, which Obama has talked about several times. This can only have helped, though both Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin continued to say not to expect any direct concessions in response. Relations are undeniably improving, as can be seen from the recent Security Council summit at the UN, chaired by Obama and attended by leaders of nuclear powers including Russia, China, France and the UK. A resolution was unanimously adopted that focuses on stopping the spread of nuclear weapons. An announcement was also made that the US and Russia were working on reducing their stockpiles in advance of a global nuclear summit scheduled for next year. These acts can be seen as part of President Obama’s commitment to re-engagement with the world and with the international institutions and treaties that bind it together. In August, the US stated its aim to ratify the nuclear Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by next spring, having been originally signed by former President Bill Clinton in 1999 but rejected by the Senate.
Obama was hoping that Russia might shift its position with regards to Iran, and indeed after the Security Council meeting Medvedev signaled that Russia could support sanctions, after having previously opposed such an action. But this realpolitik has had a chilling effect on relations with Poland and the Czech Republic, where the anti-missile defences were to be sited. The leaders of these two nations committed significant political capital agreeing to this in the first place, during six years of negotiations with Bush administration officials. This is despite significant opposition to the plans by the populations of both countries, as well as the hostile and aggressive stance of Russia. The plans would have involved placing ten silos with interceptor rockets in northern Poland and building a large radar station south of Prague. But the Russian government feels that this region is still firmly within their sphere of influence despite now being largely part of the European Union and NATO. Indeed, Georgia was at one point a prospective candidate to join the defence alliance, which would have meant that during its war with Russia last year, NATO would have invoked its collective defence article for only the second time since September 11. The consequences of which can only be imagined.
Shifting alliances
As a result of America having abandoned the missile shield, one consequence may well be to bring Poland and the Czech Republic closer into the European Union, with a view to achieving a common EU position towards Russia. This would be in contrast to their approach to date which has been distinctly Atlanticist, in a similar vein to the UK. This can be seen at the moment with the Lisbon Treaty, which reforms many EU practices; opens the door to an elected president and foreign representative, and gives it a distinct legal personality for the first time. The Czech president, Vaclav Klaus is notoriously Eurosceptic, and goes so far as to compare the EU with the Soviet Union. He’s currently refusing to sign it, despite the Czech parliament having already passed it. Poland was in a similar position, but is now expected to complete ratification in a few days’ time. Whilst Obama’s approach to extending an open hand to countries formerly branded as being part of the “Axis of Evil” may bear fruit in due course, at the moment all it seems to be doing is souring relations with allies and yielding limited results from other nations.
Leave a Reply