Alan Morton-Smith
Mindreign.com
17/09/2009
With general elections due imminently in Germany and within nine months in the UK, politicians in both countries are in the process of setting out their policies, and trying to distinguish themselves from the opposition. This is proving to be relatively difficult in Germany, where an uneasy “grand coalition” between the two major parties — and the resultant joint responsibility for the last four years — have restricted their ability to criticise each other. Early surveys of those who watched last night’s TV debate suggest that the challenger, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, had swayed more people than Chancellor Angela Merkel, leader of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU). That said, 48% considered it to be a draw.
In Britain, Lord Mandelson, the Secretary of State for Business and one of the most powerful members of Gordon Brown’s Cabinet, has been setting out the Labour Party’s economic strategy. In a speech today, he defined Labour as being “wise spenders, not big spenders”, with a view to bringing the party into line with public opinion, which polls reveal as being more in favour of the opposition Conservative Party, and their more strident approach to cutting public spending.
Prospects
Continuing a trend seen across Europe in the recent European Parliament election, polls in both countries suggest that the centre-right parties hold double-digit leads over their social democratic rivals. But voters in Germany and the UK could arguably have trouble distinguishing between the policies of the two main parties. The most potent reason for this is as a result of being constrained by large budget deficits, with existing stimulus packages and bank bailouts having already added a considerable strain to government finances. In Britain, the Conservatives have attempted to shed their image of being the “nasty party” — a phrase coined by former party chairman Theresa May — by pledging increased spending on health and international development, with a view to wooing more liberal voters. As a result of this, and other initiatives by party leader David Cameron to “decontaminate” the Conservative party brand, he has brought his party’s policies more closely into line with the incumbent Labour party. In a way this mirrors Labour’s strategy before winning the general election in 1997: in trying to assuage fears of financial mismanagement which they had been associated with in the past, they promised to keep to Conservative spending plans for their first two years in government.
One consequence of there being little substantive policy differences between both major parties is that the political debate tends to centre around who would be better stewards of the economy. Mr Steinmeier, who leads the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) argues that the CDU would pursue the kind of market liberalism that created the current financial situation, and furthermore that “the thinking that got us into this crisis can’t get us out of it”. Ms Merkel however, argues that her coalition would lead Germany to faster economic growth and lower unemployment. The only major foreign policy difference to emerge in the TV debate related to Afghanistan, with Mr Steinmeier making a stark departure from previous remarks, where he insisted that Berlin should not set a date for departure of troops from the country. Instead, he called for the withdrawal of the roughly 4,200 German troops deployed in Afghanistan by 2013. This policy has the potential to resonate with the public, after a controversial German-ordered air strike last week (which is still being investigated by NATO) resulted in dozens of casualties, many of whom may have been civilian.
Polling day
The prospects of the Labour party at the next general election are poor. They will have been in power for thirteen years by June next year, and have been racked by in-fighting and plots to replace Gordon Brown as party leader. In the vein of President Obama’s campaign, David Cameron is pressing the issue of “change” rather strongly, and the recent by-election win in Norwich North might suggest that the changes he has made to party policy are bearing fruit. That said, a struggling government can turn things around and achieve a surprise victory. A recent precedent in British politics can be found in John Major, who managed to steer the Conservative party to victory in 1992, despite numerous polls suggesting that they would lose. Similarly, Gerhard Schröder managed to turn what looked like a likely defeat for the SPD into a victory in the German election of 2002. This year’s federal election, however, could prove to be unpredictable. Both the CDU and the SPD fared badly in recent state elections, and if similar results were to be seen at a federal level, this could result in another “grand coalition”. However, the most likely result remains a victory for Ms Merkel.
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